Last week, the FairPlay Bulletin highlighted the gloomy prospects for South Africa’s agricultural producers and consumers resulting from the combination of war (the Iran conflict) and weather (the possibility of lower rainfall and even drought because of a looming El Niño weather pattern).
The Iran war has caused oil shortages, resulting in higher fuel and fertiliser prices which will last for months, even if the conflict ends now. El Niño is forecast to reduce rainfall later this year, ending two years of regular rains and abundant crops. There have also been suggestions of a possible “Super El Niño”, bringing severe drought across Southern Africa, we reported.
Now News24 has taken that a step further, looking at the last time this combination of war and weather struck the region. Their investigation shows that South Africa’s food price inflation, which dropped in March to 3.6%, is clearly under threat.
“Food inflation peaked at 14.4% in March 2023 – almost a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, causing massive fear around global cooking oil and wheat supplies. This was also towards the end of El Niño, which peaked in December 2023 and January 2024,” News24 reported.
“The March 2023 food price inflation rate was the worst in 14 years, coming close to the record spike of 14.7% set in March 2009 – as a result of the 2009/10 El Niño.
“The last time South Africa had a so-called super El Niño, in 2015/16, food price inflation reached a high of 12.1% in December 2016.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration currently assigns a 61% chance of El Niño, leading to hotter and drier weather conditions in Southern Africa by the third quarter of 2026, it said.
Fortunately, the possibility of a strong El Niño is much lower, at 25%.
