AGOA is gone. Why is the US chicken quota still here?

South Africa’s pork and poultry industries are being sacrificed as South Africa continues to seek a trade agreement with the United States.

The concessions were confirmed at a press briefing by trade minister Parks Tau, according to a report in Moneyweb.

“The trade matters relate to pork and poultry and market access,” Tau said, claiming that South Africa had made “generous offers” to the US and was awaiting a reply.

He did not explain “market access”, but the US has complained about anti-dumping duties and general tariffs on its poultry exports to South Africa, and disputes the need for a South African ban on US pork imports.

The anti-dumping duties on poultry were applied because an official investigation found that US producers were dumping poultry portions in South Africa. The pork ban is because South Africa is trying to remain free of a pig disease that is prevalent in the US.

Under the AGOA trade arrangement, the US has already forced on South Africa a huge annual quota of US chicken imports free of anti-dumping duties. South Africa is believed to have offered this quota in trade negotiations. Whether it has also agreed to relax general tariffs on chicken imports is not known.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) occurs in American pig herds. The highly contagious disease affects pigs’ growth and development, and South Africa is among the few countries that have remained free of PRRS.

South African pork and poultry industries have expressed fears that they are being sacrificed in the trade negotiations with the US. Tau has confirmed that these fears are justified. Just how big the sacrifice is will be known once a deal is reached and details are published.

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FairPlay is urging the government to set up a new review panel to consider including chicken in the items that are free of value-added tax (VAT).

The need for VAT-free chicken is even more urgent than it was in 2018, when the VAT-free basket was last reviewed, FairPlay founder Francois Baird said in an article in The National (formerly Business Report).

Baird noted that the 2018 expert panel found a number of reasons why chicken portions should be zero-rated, but could not reach consensus.

The result was that white bread flour and cake flour were zero-rated, but not chicken or any other meat protein. And, in the eight years since, the government has refused to include chicken in the VAT-free food basket.

Baird said it was time to appoint a new panel of experts to review the issue.

The 2018 panel had conceded that chicken “is the largest staple protein for low-income households” and that measures to hold down the price would be desirable. It even noted that the popular packs of individually quick frozen (IQF) chicken portions “are disproportionately consumed by low-income households”.

But, because of a lack of consensus, and a suspicion by some panel members that the VAT savings might not be passed on to consumers, nothing happened.

“There the matter has rested for eight years, while the number of poor people has increased,” Baird said.

“An initiative that would result in an immediate price drop of chicken pieces has been repeatedly rejected. Poor people pay 15% more than they need to for chicken, and there is still no meat protein in the VAT-free basket.

“It is time for another expert panel to look into the matter. Perhaps, this time, the panel will do what they should have done eight years ago, and remove VAT from the chicken products that are essential for poor people,” Baird concluded.

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Brazil has just reported outbreaks of the contagious poultry sickness Newcastle disease. However, imports from Brazil will not be affected because South Africa has limited a trade ban to the areas concerned, allowing imports from the rest of Brazil.

This sensible arrangement is the result of a compartmentalisation agreement between South Africa and Brazil on Newcastle disease outbreaks.

Last year, South Africa banned all poultry imports from Brazil for nine weeks after a bird flu outbreak in one state. Several other countries did the same, because of a lack of compartmentalisation agreements.

As a result, export volumes dropped back to 2020 levels in Brazil, the world’s largest poultry exporter.

The approach to Newcastle disease is different, Izaak Breitenbach of the SA Poultry Association (SAPA) explained in a letter to Business Day. The ban applied only to affected poultry production operations and a 10 km radius around them.

“That is a more precise control and it works because it strictly targets the source of the risk,” Breitenbach said, congratulating the Department of Agriculture on the decision. It would limit shortages and price increases.

He also pointed out that the South African poultry flock was vaccinated against Newcastle disease, and South Africa did not import day-old chicks or hatching eggs from Brazil.

“We have enough breeder hens to maintain normal production, so we believe the risk of contagion to our national flock is low,” Breitenbach said.

FairPlay’s view

South African poultry producers have pushed, so far without success, for smaller compartmentalisation areas in export agreements with Middle East countries. These countries have compartmentalised South Africa on a provincial basis, so a bird flu outbreak results in province-wide bans on production facilities, blocking exports from sites that could be hundreds of kilometres away from the outbreak.

Agreements to ban affected production facilities and a 10 km radius would be very welcome to local poultry exporters.

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Hotter, drier weather in early 2027 caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon could end a lengthy period of extremely low food inflation in South Africa.

This is the conclusion of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) in its monthly Food Inflation Brief for September 2026.

Food inflation has been below national headline inflation since March this year. Both ticked up slightly in September – food inflation rose to 1.2% from 1.1% in August, while headline inflation was 4.5%, from 4.4% the previous month.

“Food commodity prices increases are expected to remain relatively moderate for the remainder of 2026,” the BFAP said. However, it warned of changes ahead.

“The predicted El Niño weather cycle remains a risk going into the 2027 season, particularly on planting activity and summer crop production, natural grazing and pastures.

“In addition, rising fuel and fertiliser costs linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict will impact production and distribution costs, with the former affecting planting decisions and the latter placing upward pressure on food prices over the medium term.

“Nevertheless, large stock levels accumulated over the previous two bumper seasons should help cushion some of these potential price increases,” the report concluded.

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The Supreme Court of Appeal has made a potentially momentous decision for South African poultry farmers, ordering the government to pay compensation for chickens it orders to be culled during bird flu outbreaks.

Key takeaways:

• The Supreme Court of Appeal has ruled 3–2 that farmers must be compensated for chickens and eggs destroyed on government orders during bird flu outbreaks, valued as if they were healthy.
• The government has until 19 November to seek leave to appeal to the Constitutional Court. If it doesn’t, claims are likely from farmers hit by the 2017, 2021 and 2023 outbreaks.
• SAPA says fair compensation encourages farmers to report outbreaks quickly, which matters for disease control, jobs and food security.

The judgment, by South Africa’s second-highest court, upholds a decision by the High Court in 2024 that invalidated the Department of Agriculture’s decisions over many years that sick birds have no value. The government had therefore set the compensation amount at zero.

The High Court said that the department had to value chickens according to their value as healthy birds. The Supreme Court of Appeal has upheld this in a 3–2 majority decision.

The government has until 19 November to appeal to the Constitutional Court. If it accepts the Supreme Court of Appeal decision, there is likely to be a flood of claims from farmers who had to cull chickens and destroy eggs in bird flu outbreaks in 2017, 2021 and 2023.

The farmer involved in the case had claimed R32 million for the loss of chickens and eggs destroyed by government order in 2021. The SA Poultry Association (SAPA) has estimated poultry industry losses in the 2023 outbreaks at R10 billion.

SAPA supported the litigation and participated as a friend of the court because of the case’s implications for the wider industry, Engineering News reported.

“This is an important victory for poultry farmers,” SAPA’s Izaak Breitenbach said.

“Compulsory culling can remove a farmer’s productive flock in a matter of days. Farmers who comply are helping to protect other farms and the public, and fair compensation recognises that shared benefit,” he stated.

The judgment also recognised that compensation supports effective disease control by encouraging prompt reporting and cooperation with veterinary authorities.

“Confidence that compensation will be assessed fairly strengthens our ability to respond quickly to outbreaks. That matters for animal health, investment, jobs and food security across both the chicken and egg industries,” Breitenbach said.

SAPA called for outstanding claims to be addressed fairly and promptly in accordance with the judgment. It also noted that the State may still seek leave to appeal to the Constitutional Court.

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Deteriorating infrastructure, such as electricity and water failures and poor roads, pushes up costs for poultry producers and other agricultural suppliers. The effects were highlighted in a recent webinar hosted by FairPlay.

Speakers pointed out that industries such as poultry – the largest component of South Africa’s agricultural sector – needed reliable electricity and water supplies and well-maintained roads.

When those failed, production declined, jobs were lost and rural workers migrated to the cities.

“A broiler house turns feed, water, air and electricity into protein. If one input fails for a few hours, birds die. If it fails for a few days, a business fails. Municipal water, wastewater, roads and power are as real a production input as feed,” said Kibiti Ntshumaelo, Managing Director and Principal Civil Engineer of Lekwa Consulting Engineers, in a presentation submitted to the webinar. Ntshumaelo was prevented at the last minute from attending.

FairPlay founder Francois Baird, who moderated the session, recalled the closure of the Clover cheese factory in Lichtenburg, with the loss of more than 300 jobs, because of infrastructure failures. He also noted that a poultry producer had spent more than R100 million on a pipeline to supply water to its production plant, because the municipality could not.

Izaak Breitenbach of the SA Poultry Association (SAPA) said South Africa’s poultry industry was now the second-most competitive in the world, producing chickens more cheaply than every country except Brazil.

However, that competitiveness was threatened by declining municipal services such as water, roads and electricity that raised costs for producers. Despite hopes for improvement, municipal performance was not improving in poultry-producing areas.

Breitenbach also emphasised the importance of the poultry industry for the whole value chain, from grain farmers and feed producers to packaging and retail.

The discussion also looked at solutions, both immediate and longer term. Speakers highlighted the need for municipal maintenance, competence and accountability, and the potential for private sector participation.

Breitenbach mentioned three municipalities where local poultry producers were contributing to, or had taken over management of, the local water supply, to the benefit of all. The towns were Lekwa in Mpumalanga, Boshoff in the Free State and Hartebeesfontein in North West province.

Economist Thabile Nkunjana from the National Agricultural Marketing Council pointed to the success of co-operation between a mining company and the municipality in Midvaal. He also emphasised the impact of poor water services on local communities and small-scale farmers.

Baird highlighted five practical actions submitted by consulting engineer Ntshumaelo. His suggestions were: ringfenced operational and maintenance budgets; putting engineers back in charge of engineering; prioritising municipalities with large operations such as poultry; industry co-investment; and accountability for actions.

Chris Campbell of Consulting Engineers South Africa said the country had a shortage of engineers and should make the best use of those available by pooling resources. He said there were several thousand private sector engineers who could help relieve the municipal shortage.

Baird concluded with the hope that the government would understand the problems and implications of rural infrastructure failures, because municipalities were “the next frontier” for the development of rural areas, the stability of agriculture and the growth of South Africa’s world-beating poultry industry.

Watch the full webinar

Find out more about the speakers on the webinar page.

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