South Africa’s agricultural exports have grown strongly over the past five years, although imports grew slightly faster in the latest quarter.
South Africa’s agricultural exports have grown strongly over the past five years, although imports grew slightly faster in the latest quarter.
This is according to statistics from the second quarter of 2026 contained in the quarterly trade brief from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP).
Agricultural exports have risen from R49bn in Q2 2021 to R74bn in Q2 2026 (a 52% increase), BFAP said. In recent years, imports have grown much more slowly and have remained between R35bn and R37bn.
In the second quarter of 2026, agricultural exports rose by 3.5% year on year, while imports rose by 4.2%. This kept net trade nearly the same as in 2025.
“Export growth was positive overall. Exports were largely destined for the SADC region, with the EU in second place. SADC accounted for 34% of agricultural exports. BRICS nations showed the fastest growth of 23%.”
The impact of tariffs imposed by the United States resulted in the US share of South African agricultural exports dropping from 5% in Q2 2025 to 3% in the second quarter of this year.
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The mini-budget contained one very welcome announcement: the allocation of R1.6 billion to a presidential programme to combat child stunting.
The mini-budget contained one very welcome announcement: the allocation of R1.6 billion to a presidential programme to combat child stunting.
Stunting is caused by malnutrition, and South Africa has an extremely high rate of child stunting. The Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) has estimated that 28% of children under five years of age are stunted.
This means that more than a quarter of South African children under five may not develop to their full potential, physically or mentally.
FairPlay has described this statistic as a national scandal, and has repeatedly called for action against stunting, because it is preventable.
In his State of the Nation Address in February, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a mission to end child stunting by 2030.
“We will focus on the crucial first 1,000 days of a child’s life. Building on existing support such as the Child Support Grant, we will implement targeted interventions to ensure that pregnant women and low birth-weight children get the protein and nutrients that they need.”
In this month’s mini-budget, finance minister Enoch Godongwana announced that R1.6 billion would be allocated to this initiative over the medium term.
No further details have been given.
President Ramaphosa labelled child stunting “a massive crisis that demands attention and resources”. We hope this presidential push means the initiative is being given a high priority.
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Predictions of the impact of the coming El Niño weather phenomenon, which will bring hotter and drier weather to Southern Africa this summer, keep getting worse.
Predictions of the impact of the coming El Niño weather phenomenon, which will bring hotter and drier weather to Southern Africa this summer, keep getting worse.
The latest long-range forecast from the South African Weather Service says the El Niño development, which starts in the Pacific Ocean and affects much of the world, is strengthening. It predicts that this will result in below-normal rainfall for large parts of the summer rainfall area, together with above-normal temperatures.
“The dry signal is particularly widespread across the interior and the northeastern half of the country, where substantial rainfall is normally received during summer.”
Daily Maverick says this area includes key farming lands and the Kruger National Park. However, it notes that much of the production in that area is fruit and vegetables, which are produced under irrigation, and that dam levels are currently good.
The publication also warned that a “once-in-a-millennial climate event” may be looming, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who has studied tree rings and the annual bands in coral fossils.
“This year’s El Niño event is likely to be the strongest in 1,000 years if the latest models of its peak prove accurate,” he said.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo says an El Niño-induced drought could lead to crop failures in Southern Africa, and rising food insecurity.
He also noted that the World Food Programme, which has provided assistance in past climate emergencies, has been hobbled because it has lost funding that used to come from USAID.
“This means that the governments in Southern Africa must prepare for what could be a challenging period for households and farmers,” Sihlobo said.
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This year’s mini-budget was a good one, in most respects. Its big failing was the continued refusal by the government to help poor people by making chicken more accessible.
This year’s mini-budget was a good one, in most respects. Its big failing was the continued refusal by the government to help poor people by making chicken more accessible.
Key takeaways:
Eighth refusal in a row: The mini-budget again left VAT on the chicken portions that poor households rely on for protein.
15% extra on every portion: Millions of South Africans keep paying VAT on chicken portions and chicken liver, while fuel prices push food inflation higher.
A quick, affordable fix: FairPlay has urged Minister Godongwana to reconsider. Dropping VAT would bring prices down immediately for the households that need it most.
The mini-budget is essentially an update on the main budget delivered in February, and a look forward.
FairPlay pointed out that this is the eighth year in a row that the government has refused to remove value added tax (VAT) from the chicken portions that poor people rely on for their meat protein.
VAT-free chicken was a simple pro-poor measure, FairPlay founder Francois Baird said in a statement. Once again, finance minister Enoch Godongwana had missed the opportunity to implement it.
“He has rejected a move which has the support of all political parties, as well as President Ramaphosa. He has done so at a time when the move is affordable. And he has turned away from an initiative that would have stimulated growth and jobs,” Baird said.
“As a result, millions of poor South Africans will continue to pay an extra 15% on every chicken portion that they buy, and on every pack of chicken liver.
“This is a tragedy, for them and for the country. Hunger, poverty and unemployment have increased every year since 2018, when the government first refused to opt for VAT-free chicken. Petrol and diesel prices are rising inexorably, and will drive up food inflation. Hunger levels will go up further.
“It is a situation crying out for a quick and easy step to make food more affordable.”
FairPlay appealed to Minister Godongwana to reconsider.
“Drop VAT on chicken, and prices will drop immediately. Millions of poor people will thank you,” Baird concluded.
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FairPlay has taken chicken importers to task for their loud and frequent opposition to a poultry import tariff renewal while it is under consideration by South African authorities.
FairPlay has taken chicken importers to task for their loud and frequent opposition to a poultry import tariff renewal while it is under consideration by South African authorities.
Key takeaways:
- Desperate public campaign: Chicken importers are aggressively lobbying in the media because they fear losing both their legal argument at ITAC and the profits from duty-free imports.
- Severe economic threat: Scrapping duties across target countries would dismantle crucial trade policy measures. This risks local poultry jobs, rural development, and national food security.
- Moral and economic divide: Local producers play a vital national role by providing affordable meat (over 60% of South Africa’s consumption), whereas importers exploit cheap dumped chicken for high profits without lowering prices for consumers.
The arguments are in, both for and against. Now South Africa’s trade regulator, the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) is considering whether or not to renew anti-dumping duties on poultry imports from Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
But, instead of waiting for the decision, chicken importers, represented by the Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) have used multiple media outlets to argue that the anti-dumping duties should fall away.
It is essentially shouting “unfair”, presumably in the hope that ITAC’s commissioners will hear them. ITAC has already said that the South African Poultry Association (SAPA) has presented what could be a compelling case for the renewal of the anti-dumping duties.
FairPlay thinks importers are making so much noise because they fear they have lost, both the argument at ITAC and the additional revenue they would make from duty-free chicken imports.
FairPlay founder Francois Baird said in a statement that importers were opposing anti-dumping duties on chicken portions from all nine producer countries subject to them.
They clearly hoped that anti-dumping duties would be lifted from Germany, the Netherlands and the UK in the present case, to be followed by the United States, Brazil, Denmark, Ireland, Spain and Poland in other legal challenges.
“That is a horrifying prospect for anybody who cares about South African jobs, our poultry industry, the interests of South African consumers and the country’s food security. Not to mention income to Treasury and rural development. South African poultry farmers are small town employment machines,” Baird said.
“The poultry industry’s stated objective is to feed the nation with high-quality affordable chicken. It has done so for decades, to the benefit of millions of low-income households for whom chicken is their main source of meat protein.
Chicken comprises more than 60% of the meat consumed in South Africa.
“With unemployment and malnutrition at record levels, these objectives are of national strategic importance.”
Importers, on the other hand, did not pass on low chicken import prices to consumers – dumped chicken sold at market prices and importers pocketed fat profits.
“Dumped chicken cheats South Africans and boosts foreign jobs,” Baird said.
“Chicken importers can shout as loudly as they like, but they are on the wrong side of this argument, economically and morally.”
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Join us as we discuss how local government infrastructure can unlock poultry growth, food security and jobs in South Africa.
Join us as we discuss how local government infrastructure can unlock poultry growth, food security and jobs in South Africa.
South Africa’s poultry industry is a major agricultural employer and a critical source of affordable protein. Yet unreliable electricity, water shortages, deteriorating roads, wastewater failures and logistics constraints raise production costs, disrupt operations and weaken investment.
This webinar will place municipal performance at the centre of the debate on local poultry growth, food affordability and rural job creation.
Panellists
- Malapane Thamaga, Senior Economist, NAMC.
- Christopher Campbell, Chief Executive Officer, CESA.
- Izaak Breitenbach, GM Broiler Organisation, SAPA.
- Francois Baird, Founder, FairPlay Movement.
Event details
- Date: Thursday 29 October 2026.
- Time: 12pm – 2pm.
- Platform: Zoom. Access details will be provided to registered participants.
Register your attendance below.
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