To escape US tariffs, find new export markets

The South African government needs to move much faster to open export market opportunities for South African farmers, according to agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo.

In his blog, Sihlobo said the new US tariffs highlighted the need for urgent action to diversify agricultural exports. This is an issue he has championed for some time.


“South Africa cannot keep moving at a pedestrian pace on trade matters during heightened geoeconomic tension. There is a need for renewed energy and urgency from the government officials’ side,” he wrote.


“The BRICS region remains crucial in this endeavour, amongst other regions. Here, the South African government must have a sharper focus on lowering import tariffs and phytosanitary barriers in countries such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia, with the latter mainly for fruits.


“Moreover, the continuous effort to retain access to markets South Africa already exports to is also vital.”


He also called for a rethink on the marketing of agricultural exports.


“Presenting South African products as a pack under the ‘South Africa Inc’ approach may be key,” Sihlobo suggested.


He said South Africa should also do what it could to address domestic agricultural issues.


While the poultry industry stressed the need to accelerate a bird flu vaccination programme, “feedback from the regulators about this issue has not been encouraging so far,” Sihlobo noted.

While tariffs can serve as important tools in addressing unfair global trade practices and protecting national interests, experts caution against sweeping measures that may trigger economic instability or political fallout.

A leading US academic has warned that President Donald Trump’s latest tariff proposals could do more harm than good — not only to the American economy, but also to the broader credibility of US trade policy. 

Writing in RealClearMarkets, emeritus professor of finance at Columbia University, Charles Calomiris argues that the proposed tariffs, if implemented without refinement, risk undermining the economic progress achieved in recent years. He points to the likelihood of higher inflation, slower growth, and a potential downturn in exports — all of which would hurt US consumers and producers alike. 

Far from strengthening the United States, Calomiris suggests that a blunt approach to tariffs could embolden competitors and strain diplomatic ties.

Rather than rejecting tariffs outright, he calls for more strategic thinking: targeted measures that respond to specific unfair practices, particularly in key sectors where national security or long-term competitiveness is at stake. 

The broader message is that tariffs, like any policy instrument, must be used judiciously. Applied too broadly or hastily, they risk unintended consequences.

As the world watches how the United States approaches trade under a new administration, policymakers face a clear challenge: to defend fair trade, without destabilising the very markets they seek to improve.

FairPlay founder Francois Baird has included the new US tariff policy in a look at global current affairs through an analogy with famous movies.

An article in the Mail & Guardian featured his views, written as a distinguished fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC) in Washington DC.

Up until the time of President Trump’s inauguration this year, he wrote, “there was one geopolitical blockbuster playing in every cinema”. It was dominated by a single script – globalised institutions supported by American leadership.

“This script revolved around Western-style democracy, free markets and free trade, and aiming for peace and wealth through coordinated global interventions to deal with problems, from rising powers to regional conflicts.”

Now there were multiple competing narratives. 

Baird looked at the changing global script through reimagined plots for The China Syndrome (multiple issues between China and the US redefining global norms), while the Middle East hotspots were captured in a double feature titled Tehran & Black Hawk Down.

Europe, Ukraine and Russia featured in The Hunt for Red October, while Wall Street looked at America’s internal recalibration to improve competitiveness.

“Focused on energy dominance, smaller government, deregulation and re-industrialisation through tariffs and technology protection, this story is about economic sovereignty as statecraft. Artificial intelligence, energy dominance and re-industrialisation are key themes in this plotline.”

Out of Africa featured the continuing competition for Africa’s minerals and assets by the US, China and Europe, while The Gods Must be Crazy had South Africa grappling with free markets versus state control, and alliances with Western powers or China.

The issues were interconnected, Baird said. Leaders had to navigate overlapping conflicts while balancing economic priorities and military strategies.

“With the old script shredded, improvisation is essential. Leaders must embrace complexity, become creative and seek opportunities for innovation in uncertainty.” 

“As audiences worldwide watch these stories unfold, one thing is clear — managing complexity will be the defining skill of global leadership beyond 2025,” Baird concluded.

Chicken is positioned as the protein winner in the United States in 2025, according to an article in WATT Poultry.

Consumers valued chicken’s low cost, healthiness and taste, the article stated.

Animal protein demand has been exceptional in recent years, but chicken had seen the largest growth at 19% over the past decade, it said, quoting an address to the 2025 Meat Conference by Brian Earnest, animal protein economist at CoBank.

Demand for chicken was so strong that it had overtaken beef – and even replacing beef in some cases, Earnest said, noting the popularity of the McDonald’s Chicken Big Mac released in late 2024.

He also noted increased demand in the US for dark meat – the chicken leg quarters, thighs and drumsticks that are typically considered an export product in the US.

“Earnest stated that this tells him US consumer is finding dark meat more appealing, perhaps in part due to the higher prices of other cuts. US consumers also tend to prefer boneless options like breast meat compared to the bone-in products like thigh meat. 

“New further processing technology has made it easier to debone thigh meat, which is also helping to drive popularity,” Earnest said.

A United Kingdom government statement confirming the incident said the virus strain had been identified as H5N1. This is the bird flu strain that has spread to most countries in recent years.

Only one sheep was infected, and it was culled to enable extensive testing. The UK Chief Veterinary Officer has reminded livestock keepers of the need to maintain good biosecurity and to remain vigilant to the clinical signs of avian influenza following recent outbreaks.  

The statement quoted Dr Dr Meera Chand, Emerging Infection Lead at the UK Health Security Agency, as saying:  

“Globally, we continue to see that mammals can be infected with avian influenza A(H5N1). 

“However, current evidence suggests that the avian influenza viruses we’re seeing circulating around the world do not spread easily to people – and the risk of avian flu to the general public remains very low.”

Agriculture minister John Steenhuisen has called for a “whole-of-society” approach to upgrade South Africa’s agricultural biosecurity and protect the country against animal and crop diseases.

In an article in Farmer’s Weekly, Steenhuisen said recent delays in reporting outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in cattle had highlighted gaps in the country’s preparedness. 

“Outbreaks of FMD, African swine fever and avian influenza have resulted in the mass culling of livestock, reduced exports and economic distress among farmers. The most recent FMD outbreak forced a temporary nationwide cattle movement ban, disrupting supply chains and livelihoods. 

“Beyond livestock, crop agriculture is also under siege. The fall army worm and fruit fly infestations are compromising harvests, threatening food security and making compliance with export regulations increasingly difficult.

“The EU and other trading partners impose strict biosecurity regulations, and repeated failures to meet standards could lead to lasting damage to South Africa’s agricultural reputation,” Steenhuisen wrote. 

Tackling biosecurity risks could not be the job of the government alone.

“Farmers, agribusinesses, veterinarians, researchers and consumers all have a role to play. Without a collective approach that involves all sectors of society, South Africa will remain vulnerable to recurring outbreaks.”

Steenhuisen said South Africa should align the country’s biosecurity strategies with international best practices. He cited a biosecurity management programme developed by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), and early warning systems in Kenya and Uganda.

“The European Parliament’s best practices on whole-of-society resilience highlight the need for cross-sector collaboration, community involvement and proactive risk management.  

“South Africa must build a biosecurity strategy that integrates government entities, industry leaders, and local communities to ensure long-term resilience,” Steenhuisen argued.