Foreign jobs and fat profits – the anti-tariff campaign

Rainbow, South Africa’s second largest poultry producer, has set its sights on growth to supply a steady increase in demand for chicken.

The company has reported a second year of increased profitability as a standalone company. Rainbow was unbundled from its former parent company, RCL Foods, in June 2024.

Rainbow’s results for the year ended June 2026 showed that revenue for the year had increased by 7.7% to R17.1 billion, while operating profit was up 153% to R1.76 billion. The company increased the dividend paid to shareholders and added a special dividend of 75 cents per share.

It said it had completed its turnaround strategy and operational strength had been restored.

The next phase of the group’s strategy would focus on growth to match expected increased demand for chicken. It said chicken consumption was expected to rise to 2030 and beyond.

It noted, however, that near-term conditions  could be affected by consumer affordability pressures and potential increases in input prices, including the impact of the expected El Niño weather conditions. The El Niño weather phenomenon brings hotter and drier conditions  to Southern Africa.

The warnings keep coming that South Africa’s very low food price inflation will not last much beyond the end of this year.

The reasons are the continuing war in Iran, which is pushing up fuel prices, and the expected arrival of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which will not only bring hotter and drier conditions this summer, but is predicted to be the strongest in living memory.

If that proves correct, drought conditions are looming, grain harvests will shrink, and food inflation will surely follow.

For the moment, food inflation has dropped steadily, reaching the lowest level since 2010, as the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) reports in its latest Food Inflation Brief.

In July, the annual rate of food inflation dropped to 0.9%, from 1.6% in June. This is far lower than national headline inflation, which was down to 4.3% from a two-year high of 5% the previous month.

The BFAP attributed the decline to lower prices for agricultural commodities (South Africa is enjoying record grain harvests) and lower meat prices following price spikes due to outbreaks of foot and mouth disease.

“Food commodity prices are expected to remain relatively moderate in the coming months.

“However, the predicted El Niño weather cycle remains a risk going into the 2027 season, particularly on planting activity and summer crop production. In addition, higher fuel and fertiliser costs due to the prolonged Middle East conflict will impact production and distribution costs, placing upward pressure on food prices over the medium term.

“Nevertheless, high stock levels accumulated over the previous two bumper seasons should help cushion some of these potential price increases,” the BFAP concluded.

South Africa’s sugar farmers have welcomed the tariff rise which will help curb a flood of cheap sugar imports – but they have warned that further increases may be needed to stem the flow.

Sugar producers have clamoured all year for an increase in the dollar-based reference price (DBRP) for sugar imports, citing “a flood of heavily subsidised sugar imports”. Imports, they said, had increased 70-fold in four years. As a result, local sugar sales had fallen by 35%.

The DBRP, which underpins import tariffs for sugar, had been stuck at $680 per tonne since 2018. It has now been increased to $785 per tonne.

However, the SA Canegrowers warned in a statement, this “may not go far enough to fully close the gap that has allowed a surge of subsidised imports to displace locally produced sugar from the local market”.

They said they would watch closely to see whether the adjustment translates into a genuine reduction in sugar import volumes.

Chicken importers appear increasingly rattled by FairPlay’s questions about their support for chicken exports. They have now clarified their position and have come out in support of a plan to double and treble South Africa’s poultry sales abroad.

Key takeaways:

• AMIE backs poultry exports: Following FairPlay’s pressure, importers declared support for boosting South African poultry sales abroad.
• Master plan commitment: AMIE agreed to assist with market identification and targeted export growth leading into 2030 and 2035.
• Deeds must follow words: FairPlay highlights that these targets repeat failed 2019 goals, urging AMIE to match promises with real action.

While this is news is welcome, it’s been hard work. FairPlay has noted that, while the Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) shout loudly when there’s any problem with red meat consignments, they have been notably quiet about similar issues holding back chicken exports.

AMIE is a signatory to the poultry master plan, which envisages a substantial rise in chicken export sales. This, we said, offered a considerable income boost for AMIE members, so they should be using their considerable export expertise to help overcome blockages that have kept export volumes low. Why the silence, we asked.

We now have a second, and fuller, reply on the activities that AMIE and its members are planning to increase sales abroad.

While it’s mostly a statement of intent, with little to show so far in actions, the response is encouraging. If it delivers on those promises, there will be a lot to agree on.

In its latest newsletter, AMIE says it accepts its poultry master plan role “in supporting market identification, export agreements, regulatory alignment and trade facilitation”. That’s what FairPlay called for.

AMIE also supports “a time-bound export delivery plan”. This is presumably a reference to the “export development plan” in the 2026 revised poultry master plan. This envisages exports as a percentage of local production rising to 3-5% by 2030, to 7-10% by 2035 and to a growing proportion thereafter.

The problem is that these are the same targets and timelines set out in the 2019 master plan, and they were not achieved. Exports stagnated. FairPlay will look for AMIE’s full support and co-operation to ensure that, this time around, the chicken export bonanza actually happens.

Deeds must follow words.

This year marks a significant milestone for the FairPlay Movement: 10 years of asking difficult questions, challenging unfair practices and advocating for fair trade, local industry and the jobs and livelihoods that depend on them.

Founded in October 2016 in response to the growing impact of dumped chicken imports on South Africa’s poultry industry, FairPlay has spent the past decade shining a light on the consequences of unfair trade and making sure that the voices of farmers, workers, businesses and communities are not lost in the noise of policy, politics and economics.

Ten years is more than a milestone. For an advocacy organisation, longevity is evidence of persistence, purpose and the willingness to keep speaking up when an issue deserves attention. It means gathering the evidence, asking the uncomfortable questions, exposing what is not right and advocating for solutions that put fairness and South African interest at the heart of the conversation. 

FairPlay’s first decade has been shaped by that commitment: to investigate, to challenge and to advocate for a fairer playing field. Over the coming weeks, we’ll revisit some of the people, moments, campaigns and milestones that have shaped FairPlay’s journey, and explore why the work of organisations prepared to keep asking the hard questions remains so important. 

Ten years is worth celebrating. But perhaps more importantly, it is worth recognising as ten years of not backing down.

WATTPoultry reports that Rainbow is expanding its poultry export drive into the Middle East and African markets.

This expansion is a welcome sign of movement on a core pillar of South Africa’s Poultry Sector Master Plan: opening foreign markets to local chicken producers. 

For years, the domestic industry has been forced into defensive mode, fighting to survive the devastating influx of dumped, predatory imports that crippled local producers and cost jobs and growth.

Seeing Rainbow step up its export drive, alongside long-standing efforts by producers like Sovereign Foods, shows what local agriculture can achieve when given room to grow. 

Accessing regional markets via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and securing accreditation for European and UK standards are essential steps. However, an industry export drive cannot succeed in a vacuum. FairPlay has repeatedly pointed out that while local producers continue to invest in international compliance, food safety, and processing capacity, progress on export volumes remains far too slow without urgent, aggressive backing from government and export associations. 

State support must match industry investment by fast-tracking trade agreements, resolving costly veterinary and health barriers, and clearing infrastructure bottlenecks at local ports.

Exporting South African chicken is not just good business for individual companies, it is a vital strategy to defend local jobs, bolster food security, earn foreign exchange, and secure the long-term future of our agricultural supply chain.