South African agriculture could soon recover from the mid-season drought which resulted in major summer grain crop losses this year.
In his latest blog, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo reflects cautious optimism for better rainfall after the planting season later this year.
“The 2024-25 season seems likely to be a recovery period,” he says, noting the still very cautious predictions of Australian and South African weather forecasters. The weather experts (and farmers) are watching anxiously to see if the El Niño weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean gives way to La Niña conditions.
El Niño brings hotter and drier weather to the Southern hemisphere, while La Niña can bring rainfall and abundant crops. The likelihood at the moment is of La Niña conditions in the 2024-25 season and potentially favourable rainfall, Sihlobo says.
“The improvement of weather conditions is not only for crops but also for the horticulture and livestock industry. The dam levels that horticulture relies on will benefit from improved rainfall. Equally, the grazing veld for the livestock industry will also benefit from better rainfall.
“So far, the available insights support a view of a potential recovery in South Africa’s agriculture in the 2024-25 season,” he concludes.
