Poultry imports to South Africa plummeted for a second successive month in July due to the nine-week bird flu ban on Brazil. Local producers increased production in response, keeping supply and retail prices stable.
There was no panic, and no huge retail price surge. Local producers increased production in response to the shortage, and retail prices remained stable. And chicken importers remained silent.
The local poultry industry supplies more than 80% of the local markets, with imports accounting for nearly 20% of chicken consumption. Most of South Africa’s poultry imports come from Brazil, and the bulk of that consists of mechanically deboned meat (MDM), used in processed meats, and offal products such as chicken heads, feet and livers.
South Africa’s ban on Brazilian imports was in place for May and June, and the first week of July this year. Due to lengthy shipping times from Brazil (six to 12 weeks) the effects began to show in import statistics for June, and are likely to continue to August and beyond.
Before the ban was imposed, chicken importers warned that a total ban could “significantly drive up prices and impact food security”. Fortunately, they were wrong, largely because local poultry producers upped their game and produced more chicken for the market.
Izaak Breitenbach of the SA Poultry Association told FairPlay that production has increased to 22 million chickens per week, and the industry has existing capacity to raise this by a further half million birds per week.
This came as StatsSA revealed that poultry imports in July came to only 10 000 tonnes – a third of recent monthly levels and the lowest in recent history.
Import volumes plummeted in June to nearly half of what they were in May, and then by a further 35% in July. Nearly all of the decline was due to sharply reduced imports from Brazil.
Despite this, there was no dramatic spike in chicken prices. The July inflation statistics showed that the 5.1% annual increase in chicken prices remained below the food inflation rate of 5.7%.
Detail published by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) was that prices of other meat products increased significantly faster, with beef prices rising between 24% and 33% above the previous year, lamb going up by 11% and pork by 5.7%.
A few months of low import volumes are going to hit importers hard, which is why they keep fighting for more chicken imports. However, production increases show that consumers can continue to rely on local farmers for a steady supply of affordable South African chicken.
