The bird flu threat is very different at the moment, on two continents in different hemispheres.
The bad news is Australia, which has now reported bird flu deaths in sea birds in a second of its states, strengthening fears that the country’s poultry, as well as its unique birds and mammals, including kangaroos and wallabies, could be at risk.
So far there have been no widespread outbreaks among Australian sea birds, and commercial poultry flocks remain unaffected. But, as The Conversation reported, it is probably a case of when, not if, the virus spreads.
Sea birds in Western Australia and subsequently also in South Australia died of the H5N1 bird flu strain, which has devastated commercial poultry and killed thousands of mammals worldwide. Until last month, Australia was the only continent to which H5N1 had not spread.
The good news is North America, which has been ravaged by bird flu. However bird flu is seasonal in the northern hemisphere and has retreated in Canada and the United States in the northern summer.
The US has reported no bird flu outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks for more than a month, which Canada is approaching a two-month milestone with no infections.
While that’s good news for the US and Canada, it could be bad news for South African poultry producers.
In recent years, the US has not nearly filled its AGOA annual quota of 72 000 tonnes of chicken exports to South Africa free of the anti-dumping duties that should apply. In addition, the US is pushing for the lifting of the general tariffs South Africa applies to US chicken products. These are imposed in addition to anti-dumping duties.
While the South African poultry industry argues that the AGOA quota should have fallen away because US tariffs negate South Africa’s AGOA benefits, the quota still applies. It is a licence to dump huge quantities of chicken portions in South Africa.
The US is now free to use another controversial “concession” – the ability to self-lift bird flu restrictions – to dump chicken in South Africa until bird flu returns in the northern winter.
It could become even worse if South Africa agrees to free the US from general tariffs as well.
