El Niño appears every few years, affecting weather patterns in many parts of the world. In southern Africa it raises temperatures and lessens rainfall, and can cause severe drought. For the past three years the region has had good rains and record harvests, but El Niño is back.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo warns of difficult times ahead. He says 2024 started favourably, with excellent rains, but dryness intensified from the end of January and major damage has been caused to crops since then.
Sihlobo says heatwaves and dryness could put the entire southern African maize supply at risk.
Harvest estimates are being reduced across the region. While South Africa should still have enough maize for local demand, with a small surplus for export, most other countries will probably have to import maize to supplement local supplies.
“Given that South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe are among the largest maize producers within the Southern Africa region, a potential decline in the harvest in these countries suggests there could be an increase in the risk of food insecurity. This would necessitate imports to meet the shortfall in the region’s maize supplies.”
Sihlobo concludes with some policy considerations for governments facing rising hunger levels, starting with advice not to cap maize prices or export volumes as this affects future plantings. They could also look to the private sector in regions such as Mexico that produce white maize, and ask the World Food Programme to help the least well-off countries with maize imports from the world market.
