StatsSA says the agricultural sector contracted by 12.2% in the final quarter of 2023. In contrast, BFAP says that its own calculations put agricultural decline at a far more modest 2% to 5%, as it had predicted earlier that year.
The BFAP said in a “Perspectives” publication that it had been surprised that the StatsSA report on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 had shown an “excessively large” decline in agriculture.
It took particular issue with two aspects of the StatsSA calculation. The first was expenditure on farm inputs, where StatsSA calculated a 13.9% increase in intermediate expenditure. BFAP said this was despite significant declines in fertiliser, feed and chemicals prices during 2023, and the severe impact of outbreaks of bird flu, which would have reduced feed use.
The other “notable oddity” was the estimate that fertiliser expenditure increased by 22% in a year when fertiliser prices declined substantially.
“Given that some data is yet to be released, it is possible that official numbers may be revised,” the report concluded.
“BFAP estimates at present suggest that the contraction was between 2% and 5%, as opposed to the current official estimate of 12.2%.”
