The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired in September 2025. Will the United States’ 72 000-tonne chicken quota disappear with it? Unfortunately, history teaches us that temporary trade concessions have a way of becoming permanent fixtures.
The quota was born in 2015, when South Africa agreed to allow duty-free entry for U.S. chicken portions, free of the long-standing anti-dumping duties, to which the U.S. objected. The deal was sold as a once-off compromise to preserve automotive, steel and agricultural exports to the U.S. under AGOA. Ten years later, that “once-off” looks very much like forever.
Even as AGOA’s renewal hangs in the balance, the quota lives on. Government officials, in a series of opaque negotiations, appear prepared to retain the concession to appease American counterparts. Thus, a “temporary” measure has become structural policy; a monument to diplomatic expediency!
The economic cost is plain enough: 72,000 tonnes of bone-in portions, primarily leg quarters, would be allowed to enter the country each year without duties. Each tonne would represent South African chickens not raised, South African feed not sold, and South African jobs not created.
The only good news is that the US is not nearly filling that quota at the moment, because bird flu has spread across America. That, however, is temporary relief; the quota is a serious threat, in the medium and longer terms, to South African poultry producers.
Even small volumes displace domestic production. Spread over years, and potentially rising rapidly if the US gets bird flu under control, the quota could drain billions from rural economies.
The rationale offered by government is that sacrificing one sector protects others; a form of industrial triage, as it were, a decision taken in the interests of the broader economy. It keeps the patient alive but leaves a bleeding wound.
Worse, it sets a precedent: South Africa has proved willing to trade its poultry industry in order to benefit other sectors, and trading partners will take note. Brazil, Argentina, even the European Union will have observed the lesson: push hard enough (especially on poultry issues), and South Africa will fold.
Three policy paths now lie ahead:
One: The US quota becomes permanent, enshrined in new trade terms and locking the poultry industry into structural disadvantage.
Two: The concession expands under US pressure, freeing additional chicken products from tariffs and suppressing additional local capacity.
Three: SA reclaims its trade sovereignty, accepts that the quota has expired and should not be reintroduced, and restores the principles of fair competition.
Only the third path aligns with national interest. Anything less entrenches dependency and signals, once again, that policy promises are negotiable.
For all its size, the 72 000-tonne quota’s real weight is symbolic: a measure of whether South Africa can say “no” when “no” is the only responsible answer.
