If bird flu became transmissible between humans, its impact could be worse than the Covid-19 pandemic.
This warning comes from Professor Burtram Fielding, Dean of the Science Faculty at Stellenbosch University and an expert in virology. In an interview published by the Saturday Star, he said global travel and climate change could lead to unpredictable spikes in infections of respiratory diseases.
These included influenza, Covid-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and human metapneumovirus (HMPV). “The diseases of concern are typically caused by viruses,” said Fielding.
“Researchers are closely monitoring avian influenza; if this virus mutates to spread more easily between people, we could face a situation far worse than the Covid-19 pandemic.”
In the United States, hit heavily by bird flu, scientists are studying developments and possible mutations of the prevalent H5N1 strain of bird flu.
The Conversation reports that the current outbreak, which started in 2021, has become the largest bird flu outbreak in history, both in the US and worldwide.
A lengthy article by three US virologists from the University of Boulder Colorado, says the impact on humans is complicated.
“There have been relatively few human infections detected – fewer than 900 documented globally over several decades – but about half of those infected individuals have died,” they state.
“The good news about H5N1 for humans is that it currently doesn’t spread well between people. Most people who have contracted H5N1 have gotten it directly from interacting with infected poultry – specifically chickens, turkeys, ducks and geese, which often are raised in close quarters on large commercial farms.
“There are only a small handful of examples of human-to-human spread. Because H5N1 doesn’t spread well between people, and because direct infection of humans by infected birds is still relatively rare, H5N1 has not yet erupted into a human epidemic or pandemic,” the virologists say.
That’s good news, but the “yet” shows there’s cause for concern.
