The high tariffs the United States is imposing on goods from other countries, and particularly China, is leading to shifts in world trade as exporters explore other markets.
South Africa is looking at increased trade with China as that country diversifies away from the United States in the tariff war between those two countries.
The Trump administration has slapped tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods. In retaliation, China is putting 125% tariffs on selected imports from the US.
That leaves Chinese exporters looking for markets for goods that used to go the US, and Chinese importers looking for new suppliers for products they used to get from America.
South Africa, too, is seeking trade diversification. Its steel and agricultural products, which used to enjoy duty-free entry to the US, are now hit with tariffs of 25% and 10% respectively. Those tariffs could go up to 30% if that higher rate, currently suspended for 90 days, comes into effect in July.
China has already stated its intention to increase its agricultural imports from South Africa, according to Business Report.
The newspaper stated that the Chinese ambassador to South Africa, Wu Peng, had emphasised the need for increased bilateral trade and economic co-operation. He also said China would welcome more agricultural and industrial products from South Africa.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) underscored the significance of these statements.
“South and Latin American countries, as well as Australia, have been the primary beneficiaries of China’s diversification strategy so far. South Africa must also be part of this conversation. And what Ambassador Wu Peng raises — China’s interest in South African agricultural products — is a starting point for a deeper trade conversation.”
Sihlobo said that the first step will have to be for South African authorities to approach China to present a range of products that can be exported, and then to build from there.
The shifts in trade as a result of US tariffs are going to cause problems, particularly for small-scale farmers, Bizcommunity reports.
Agricultural specialist and mentor Allen Mkondwa said trade shifts would inevitably affect logistics, cost structures and timelines, especially for emerging farmers.
Some smallholder producers already find it difficult to secure sufficient volumes and navigate cold chain requirements, he said. If the export equation becomes more complex or costly, they risk falling even further behind.
He stressed that tariff changes don’t just impact revenue; they disrupt long-term planning, which is crucial for sustainable farming. Producers at this level are often operating season to season. Without predictable access to markets, years of capacity building can be undone, Mkondwa said.
South African soybean producers are concerned that the China-US tariff war will make it difficult for them to exploit alternative export markets for the soybeans that no longer enjoy duty-free access to America.
Rapid expansion in South African soybean production has turned the country from a net importer to a significant exporter of soybeans. This trade is now threatened by tariff war, Freight News reported.
When the first Trump administration raised tariffs on China, the Chinese responded by buying soybeans from South America instead of the US, it said. If this happens again, America will have to sell its soybeans elsewhere, and South Africa and the US could be competing for the same alternative markets.
“This could lead to price volatility and potential oversupply in markets where South Africa has recently established a foothold,” the report said.
