South Africans are expected to eat more meat per person as incomes improve over the coming decade, with chicken leading the way because of affordability and the fact that it is seen as a healthy dietary option.
The 2025 Baseline report by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) provides an outlook for all agricultural sectors from 2025 to 2034.
The report estimates that, because of shifting consumer preferences, most of the additional meat consumed in South Africa over the next decade will be poultry. Total poultry consumption is expected to rise by 18%, with consumption per head going up by 8%.
“As the most affordable among meat types and the typical entry point for lower income consumers that start to diversify diets to include more meat, per capita consumption of poultry is expected to rise 8% by 2034 relative to the 2022-2024 base period.
“This is much slower than the early 2000’s but represents a turnaround from the decline of the recent past,” the report said.
“Amongst the various meat products, poultry is most widely consumed and with growth of 18% is also set to account for more than half of the additional meat consumed by 2034 relative to current levels.”
Pork consumption growth is marginally faster at 19%, but from a smaller base. While beef consumption is projected to expand by merely 12%, it will account for 13% of additional consumption by 2034, compared to 10% for pork. Sheep meat consumption is set to decline by 0.4%.
Production of both pork and poultry is expected to exceed consumption growth, resulting in a reduction of the share of imports in domestic consumption. BFAP said its projections for the poultry industry were based on the assumption that the poultry master plan continued to be implemented.
The report noted that the poultry industry had made consistent progress in replacing imports, which peaked at 500 000 tonnes in 2018. Imports of bone-in portions such as leg quarters had dropped from 287 000 tonnes in 2018 to 40 000 tonnes in 2024. Bone-in portions compete directly with the individually quick frozen (IQF) portions that make up the bulk of South African production.
It said that the scope for further import replacement was declining, and sustained growth would require increased exports, one of the core pillars of the poultry master plan.
The BFAP noted that its agricultural growth projections for the next decade were “balanced on a knife’s edge” because of the risks of disease and deficiencies in the country’s animal health system.
‘An effective national animal health system is a critical prerequisite for successful agricultural exports. However, the current system remains unable to cope sufficiently with disease outbreaks, undermining productivity and limiting access to export markets,” it said.
In 2023, almost 10 million chickens were culled because of bird flu outbreaks, including 40% of the broiler breeder flock. The 2025 outbreak and spread of foot and mouth disease in cattle underscored the severe impact of animal health crises.
“Addressing weaknesses in animal health and strengthening overall biosecurity will be among the most important drivers of growth for South Africa’s agriculture and agro-processing sectors,” the BFAP said.
