South Africa’s food price inflation slowed again in January, despite the reweighting and updating of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.5% in January 2025 from 1.7% in December 2024, StatsSA reported. However, headline CPI rose to 3.2% in January, up from 3.0% in December.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo noted in his blog that the deceleration in food inflation was underpinned by declines in most products in the food basket, particularly meat, fish and other seafood, milk, other dairy and eggs, and fruit and nuts.
“Essentially, the base effects and the recovery in supplies of various products continue to be the primary drivers of the slowing rate of food price increases,” Sihlobo wrote.
“The outlook for 2025 remains promising that consumer food price inflation could be relatively comfortable.”
The recent rains across South Africa had benefited agricultural production, and farmers had planted a “decent area” of crops. There were similar and better production conditions for fruits and vegetables.
“With that said, for the first half of 2025, grain-related products remain the upside risk to consumer inflation following a surge in white maize prices in recent months because of the poor crop harvest due to the drought.
“Moreover, we suspect that poultry products and other red meat prices could increase moderately in the coming months because of higher feed costs, mainly soybeans and yellow maize prices, which are elevated as the country awaits a new crop season.”
Still, Sihlobo said, these product price increases were unlikely to be notable as the consumer is also broadly under pressure, and the demand may still be relatively weak.
