South Africa’s crop production should recover later this year after an earlier poor harvest, according to agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo.
In a recent blog post, Sihlobo explains that his optimistic forecast is based on the increasing probability of La Niña conditions developing later in the year, bringing above average rainfall after a late planting season.
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, which caused a mid-season drought and heatwave that resulted in this year’s harvest dropping by 23% for maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
Farmers are optimistic that a recovery is in sight, Sihlobo says. Grain and oilseed prices are higher and fertiliser and other input prices have dropped. Together with the prospect of better rains, the result is slightly higher planting intentions – the actual areas planted will not be known until next January.
From February, the prospects are for normal weather conditions and regular rainfall.
“I remain optimistic that crop production in South Africa and Southern Africa may recover, but the season will be delayed,” Sihlobo concludes.
