With China importing less chicken, poultry exporting countries like Brazil and the United States will be looking for new markets, according to the food and agribusiness bank Rabobank.
Reporting on Rabobank’s latest animal protein report, the Poultry Site says China and Japan are exceptions to a relatively strong global environment in which growth was driven by strong local market conditions rather than trade.
The global poultry trade dropped by 5% year on year in the first quarter of 2024, with a 40% reduction in Chinese imports a notable cause.
Nan-Dirk Mulder, Rabobank’s senior analyst for animal protein, said key exporters to China – Brazil, and US and Russia – had all felt this decline.
“We expect that these countries will seek alternative markets to offset the impact of reduced Chinese trade, particularly affecting chicken feet and leg markets.”
Another producer country that would be seeking alternative markets was Ukraine, Mulder said, because of a new European Union import quota on chicken from Ukraine.
The report does not speculate which “alternative markets” might be targeted, but South Africa is likely to be on the list.
Rabobank said that the outlook for global poultry markets is improving, driven by accelerated growth in poultry meat consumption and disciplined supply growth in many markets. Chicken remains a competitively priced protein option compared to pork and beef. Feed prices have risen slightly after two years of decline.
“After four years of highly disruptive conditions, global poultry markets are moving toward more ‘normal’ market conditions,” the report said.
