There is increasing international concern at the potential severity of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which will affect South Africa over the coming summer months and into 2027.
Hot and dry weather – and possibly drought – are expected, after two years of good rains and abundant grain harvests.
The South African Weather Service has warned that this year’s El Niño “could become the strongest event in living memory”.
While it pointed out that not every El Niño event brought drought, South Africa was likely to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures for October to December this year.
“It should be noted that the expected very strong 2026/27 El Niño event, combined with global warming, will likely result in 2027 being the warmest year ever recorded. The 2015/16 very strong El Niño event brought unprecedented heatwaves to the southern African region,” the weather service said.
Despite a buffer of surplus stock from previous good harvests, lower grain plantings and crop yields would raise maize prices from next year. Maize is an essential feed for livestock farmers such as beef and chicken producers.
The World Food Programme has warned that this year’s El Niño “threatens to push tens of millions into acute hunger”, worsening food security in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries.
“El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, but in many locations the effects will be felt throughout 2027, due to impacts on future harvest cycles. Drought, flooding and extreme temperatures are already putting communities at risk,” the WFP said in a statement.
The 2015-2016 El Niño impacted the food security of 60-100 million people. WFP’s early analysis projects that this 2026-2027 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
The WFP and its partners are drawing up action plans preparing for floods, droughts, and storms before they hit, to reduce humanitarian needs
“WFP has active anticipatory action plans in over 50 countries, is supporting governments in their preparations, and helping communities to reduce risks,” it said.
East and Southern Africa faced substantial risks, particularly where upcoming rainy seasons are critical for food production.
“More than 18 million people could see their food security deteriorate, representing a 26 percent increase. Southern African countries are particularly exposed because many households depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture,” the WFP said.
