South Africa could lose billions of rands in agricultural exports and thousands of farm jobs if it has to comply with European Union (EU) regulations on agricultural pesticides.
An analysis by the independent Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) examines in detail how the EU Farm to Fork (F2F) pesticide reduction regulations could affect four agricultural exports – maize, citrus, pomes (apples and pears) and grapes.
Farm to Fork is part of the European Green Deal, a strategic roadmap for the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The F2F strategy guides these initiatives within the agricultural sector. A mirror clause would require countries exporting to the EU to adhere to the same production and input use constraints as EU farmers.
The regulations are not yet finalised, and do not yet apply to countries outside the EU, but BFAP advises the government, agricultural organisations and farmers to study them and their potential implications for production and exports.
The BFAP analysis looks only at pesticide use, a small part of South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agricultural processes, which include electricity use for production and packaging and fuel for domestic and international transport.
Nevertheless, it says the impact on the four agricultural products could be substantial.
“Key crops such as maize, pome fruit, table grapes, and citrus are at risk of increased production costs, supply reduction and potential market access issues due to the banning or restriction of essential pesticides.”
Citrus and table grape exports would be most affected.
Table grapes
The bulk of South African table grape exports (57%) go to Europe.
Pesticides currently used to control downy mildew would come under threat, with production quality affected because alternatives are less effective.
“Due to the average export price drop, combined with the reduced marketable volumes, the total value generated from exports will reduce by up to R3 bn per annum, causing uprooting of unprofitable vineyards, as producers are heavily reliant on generating a high number of export cartons per hectare to cover the high input cost in the industry.”
The result could be the loss of 2 440 hectares of vineyard (12.3%) by 2033, and the loss of 7 320 full-time equivalent jobs at farm level.
Citrus
South Africa is the second largest citrus exporter in the world, after Spain, and the largest exporter in the Southern Hemisphere, providing citrus to the Northern hemisphere in their off-season.
The EU is the single biggest off-taker of South African citrus, importing 36% of the country’s total citrus exports in 2023.
The banning of pesticides currently used to combat African citrus greening and citrus black spot could reduce the profitability of citrus farming in Limpopo by up to 61%, BFAP says. On the other hand, citrus farmers in the Western Cape, which is not affected by these pests, would benefit from substantially higher prices
Maize
The EU is not a major market for South African maize, but notable volumes are exported to Italy, Portugal, and Spain when there are surpluses in Southern Africa.
All the maize pesticides on the EU’s ‘banned or severely restricted list’ have available alternatives, but most are more expensive.
Farmers not using the pesticides on the ‘banned or severely restricted list’ could spend between R30 and R250 per hectare more on pest control.
Apples and pears
In 2023, South African production of apples and pears generated turnover of R15.85 billion and sustained nearly 48 000 farm jobs, with more in packhouses and the value chain.
Just under half of the production is exported, with 8% of apples and 28% of pears going to the EU.
EU regulations would prohibit the fungicide currently used to control scab. Alternatives are more expensive.
The BFAP estimates that, by 2033 the higher cost and lower fruit quality would result in 3.5% of apple hectares and 3% pear hectares being lost, with farmers turning to more local processing and less exports.
Fewer producers and hectares result in fewer jobs on farms and in packhouses, along with weaker demand for packing space, infrastructure, critical inputs, and more.
The BFAP says that, while the EU’s the move towards more sustainable farming practices is commendable, the economic feasibility and practical implementation of these changes need careful consideration.
“South African farmers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders must work together to navigate these changes and ensure the continued viability of the agricultural sector,” it states.
