Predictions of the impact of the coming El Niño weather phenomenon, which will bring hotter and drier weather to Southern Africa this summer, keep getting worse.
The latest long-range forecast from the South African Weather Service says the El Niño development, which starts in the Pacific Ocean and affects much of the world, is strengthening. It predicts that this will result in below-normal rainfall for large parts of the summer rainfall area, together with above-normal temperatures.
“The dry signal is particularly widespread across the interior and the northeastern half of the country, where substantial rainfall is normally received during summer.”
Daily Maverick says this area includes key farming lands and the Kruger National Park. However, it notes that much of the production in that area is fruit and vegetables, which are produced under irrigation, and that dam levels are currently good.
The publication also warned that a “once-in-a-millennial climate event” may be looming, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who has studied tree rings and the annual bands in coral fossils.
“This year’s El Niño event is likely to be the strongest in 1,000 years if the latest models of its peak prove accurate,” he said.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo says an El Niño-induced drought could lead to crop failures in Southern Africa, and rising food insecurity.
He also noted that the World Food Programme, which has provided assistance in past climate emergencies, has been hobbled because it has lost funding that used to come from USAID.
“This means that the governments in Southern Africa must prepare for what could be a challenging period for households and farmers,” Sihlobo said.
