The loss of South Africa’s preferential trade access to the United States would hurt South African agriculture, but it would not be disastrous, according to agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo.
In an article on Politicsweb, Sihlobo said the country’s agricultural sector had grown over the past three decades, it was robust and it was thriving.
This strength countered the view that agriculture would be under pressure if the Trump administration ended South Africa’s duty-free access to US markets under its AGOA legislation.
The reality, he said, was that South Africa’s agricultural exports directly to the US account for only 4% of overall agricultural exports.
“And even if South Africa could be out of AGOA, that wouldn’t mean a blockage, but there would be tariffs of around 3%, reducing the competition of South African products.”
Sihlobo said he was not minimising what is at stake; the agricultural products South Africa exports to the US include citrus, nuts, wine, grapes, and fruit juices, amongst other products.
“For these industries, an exclusion from AGOA would be negative, but it would not be a collapse of SA agriculture.”
The increase in agricultural output over the past 30 years was why South Africa now ranked 59th out of 113 countries in the global food security index, making it the most food-secure country in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The reason that millions of South Africans went to bed hungry was not because food was not available, but because they did not have the money to pay for it.
“To address poverty, South Africa must ensure employment and that households have sufficient income to buy food,” Sihlobo said.
