South Africa’s food inflation rate is expected to remain low for the rest of the year, but adverse weather could push up prices in 2027.
This is the prediction of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) in its latest monthly food inflation brief.
South Africa’s food inflation rate inched up in August, but remained well below the national headline inflation for the month.
The annual food inflation rate has been at historical lows this year. The annual rate for August was 1.1%, compared to 0.9% in July. South Africa’s headline inflation was 4.4% in August, slightly higher than the 4.3% recorded in July.
Food commodity price movements were expected to remain relatively moderate in the coming months, the BFAP said. However, the Middle East conflict, which is pushing up fuel prices, and the expected El Niño weather phenomenon, likely to bring drier and hotter weather from later this year into 2027, are already having an effect.
Maize prices increased in August for the second consecutive month. Maize is an important food source for the livestock industry, such as beef and poultry producers.
The El Niño weather cycle could affect yields, resulting in lower summer crop production heading into 2027, potentially placing upward pressure on food prices over the medium term.
“Nevertheless, large carry-over stocks accumulated following the previous two bumper production seasons should provide some buffer against these potential price pressures.” the BFAP said.
