Hotter, drier weather in early 2027 caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon could end a lengthy period of extremely low food inflation in South Africa.
This is the conclusion of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) in its monthly Food Inflation Brief for September 2026.
Food inflation has been below national headline inflation since March this year. Both ticked up slightly in September – food inflation rose to 1.2% from 1.1% in August, while headline inflation was 4.5%, from 4.4% the previous month.
“Food commodity prices increases are expected to remain relatively moderate for the remainder of 2026,” the BFAP said. However, it warned of changes ahead.
“The predicted El Niño weather cycle remains a risk going into the 2027 season, particularly on planting activity and summer crop production, natural grazing and pastures.
“In addition, rising fuel and fertiliser costs linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict will impact production and distribution costs, with the former affecting planting decisions and the latter placing upward pressure on food prices over the medium term.
“Nevertheless, large stock levels accumulated over the previous two bumper seasons should help cushion some of these potential price increases,” the report concluded.
