The United States is due to announce its review of which nations qualify for AGOA benefits, and there is speculation that South Africa might be excluded.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a US law that, since 2000, has offered duty-free access to US markets for qualifying African countries. South Africa has been on that list since its inception.
Although the AGOA legislation has been extended to the end of 2028, AGOA membership is determined by the US on an annual basis.
Qualifying countries must meet US requirements such as a market-based economy, the rule of law, measures to combat corruption and bribery, promotion of foreign investment, protection of worker rights and the elimination of barriers to US trade and investment.
Crucially for South Africa, AGOA qualification also requires that the country “does not engage in activities that undermine United Sates national security or foreign policy interests”. Critics in the US Congress have cited South Africa’s relationships with Iran, Russia and Hamas as violating this condition.
Whether or not that is a determining factor will be known when the results of the 2026 eligibility review are announced.
Other issues causing tension between South Africa and the US, including US demands that the government changes its black empowerment laws and its attitude to farm murders, and the US insistence that there is “white genocide” in South Africa, do not strictly speaking fall under the qualification definitions the US has set out.
South African trade union Solidarity believes that decision will be announced in the next few weeks and that South Africa will probably be excluded from AGOA from 2027. Solidarity’s Jaco Kleynhans told BusinessTech that “there is good reason to fear that South Africa will be excluded next year”.
That prediction is about to be tested.
