South Africa’s chicken imports were down again in May, according to the latest official statistics, and 2024 may be heading for another annual drop.
The decline comes despite the government’s unnecessary attempt to stimulate chicken imports through tariff rebates that were in force for the first three months of the year. The rebates had to be justified by a shortage of chicken on the local market, and that shortage had to have been caused by bird flu. The local poultry industry says there was no shortage in the first three months, or subsequently.
There has been no word yet as to whether the still unnecessary rebates will be extended retrospectively for the second quarter, which ended last month.
Chicken imports have been declining since they peaked in 2018, causing a crisis in the local poultry industry because of huge volumes of dumped chicken coming into the country. While anti-dumping duties have helped, the main factor behind the lower import volumes has been repeated outbreaks of bird flu in Europe and the United States.
After dropping to near zero, imports from the European Union are rising slowly again, with only three countries free of bird flu bans – Ireland, Spain and the Netherlands. Supplies from the US have been declining for several years as bird flu has spread across north America, and the US contributed only 3% to South Africa’s chicken imports in May.
Brazil, the world’s largest chicken exporter, has so far escaped the bird flu virus, and it remains the main source of chicken imports.
The exception to the five-year annual decline was 2023, when imports rose for the first time since 2018. However, chicken imports for the first five months of 2024 are 10% below the same period in 2023, so the decline may resume.
Local poultry producers will be pleased that the sensitive category of bone-in imports – the portions such as leg quarters that have been the subject of nine successful applications for anti-dumping duties – are dropping steadily. The year-to-date total for May was nearly 40% lower than last year’s already low total.
However, they will be watching rising offal import volumes with some concern. Offal imports (including chicken livers, heads and feet) have risen rapidly in recent years, doubling from 43 000 tonnes in 2017 to 86 000 tonnes last year. It looked like another annual increase was possible, but a 50% monthly decline in offal imports in May reduced the five-month total to 15% below the same period in 2023.
While the 2024 trend for chicken imports is downward, there will be no certainty until much later in the year. Monthly spikes such as happened in April show that anything can happen.
