South Africa’s chicken imports are likely to hinge on the severity of bird flu outbreaks in producer countries, with 2025 import volumes poised to rise or fall depending on the disease’s impact.
After peaking in 2018, when huge volumes of dumped chicken precipitated a crisis in the local poultry industry, the trend has been downwards. Imports dropped every year until 2023, when they rose again. However, with two months of official import statistics still to come, it looks as if the slide resumed in 2024.
The reasons for the years-long decline in import volumes are twofold. Firstly, the South African poultry industry has secured anti-dumping duties against nine producer countries, curbing imports of bone-in portions such as leg quarters.
Secondly, outbreaks of bird flu have resulted in import bans on most European countries, Canada and much of the United States. Those outbreaks are continuing during the current northern winter.
South Africa’s chicken imports are now dominated by mechanically deboned meat (MDM) which comprised 72% of import volumes in October 2024, and offal, which added a further 18%. Both are rising, while bone-in portions were down to 5% and dropping.
The impact of bird flu in producer countries is likely to be the biggest determinant of import volumes in 2025. If bird flu recedes, imports will rise. If not, bird flu bans will keep South African chicken imports down.
