By the time South Africa and the United States get round to discussing a contentious US duty-free quota for chicken imports into South Africa, there may not be much to fight about.
The result of widespread bird flu outbreaks in the US is that a substantial and damaging flood of US chicken imports is diminishing to a trickle.
The US imposed the quota on South Africa in 2015 as a condition of renewing the benefits enjoyed by other South African agricultural and manufacturing industries under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The poultry industry agreed reluctantly to “take one for the team”.
Since 2000, based on evidence of harm to local producers and jobs, South Africa has imposed anti-dumping duties on imports of US bone-in chicken portions such as leg quarters. In 2015 the US forced on South Africa a quota of 65 000 tonnes of chicken free of these duties – essentially a licence to dump large quantities of chicken in South Africa at unfairly low prices.
There was an immediate surge in imports of US chicken. From 331 tonnes in 2015, imports rose to 69 000 tonnes in 2017, 73 000 tonnes in 2019 and 82 000 tonnes in 2019, exceeding the quota in each of those years.
Then totals dropped as bird flu started to spread across the US. Imports volumes were below the quota from 2020 to 2024, first marginally and then substantially. In the year to March 2024, US imports were just under 30 000 tonnes, only 41% of the quota of nearly 72 000 tonnes.
By March this year, chicken imports from the US were even lower – only 5 956 tonnes for the quota year. The new quota has not yet been gazetted, but it is likely to be 72 000 tonnes or higher. US imports are going to be less than 10% of the quota.
The local poultry industry has applied to the South African government to cancel the quota, based on an AGOA provision that the quota falls away if South Africa loses its other AGOA benefits. The industry says those other benefits have been nullified by the Trump administration’s new tariffs on South Africa, so the quota must go.
Even if this application succeeds, the poultry industry suspects the US might try to revive the quota in any bilateral trade deal that is negotiated between the two countries.
That might not seem to be a major issue now, with import totals so low. However, 72 000 tonnes and more of dumped chicken annually gives plenty of scope for future damage if the US gets bird flu under control.
