South Africa’s AGOA exclusion would hurt some industries but would not be a national catastrophe, argued agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo.
In his blog, Sihlobo said South Africa would face an additional Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariff of around 3.4% on top of the existing tariffs the current US Administration applied to various countries.
“Currently, some South African products enter the US market at 12.5% tariffs (Liberation Day tariff). Without AGOA, these tariffs would rise to 15.9%, slightly reducing the competitiveness of some South African products in the US market.
“Still, one could argue that while this would be a challenging path, it would not necessarily be as catastrophic as we have faced in the past, when we faced much higher US tariffs and still managed to compete.”
In 2025, the South African farming sector faced tariffs of around 30%. Still, agricultural exports to the US were strong, dropping only 3% from the previous year.
“The US remains an important market for South African agriculture, accounting for about 4% of our agricultural exports. Main exports include citrus, berries, grapes, raisins, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts.”
Exclusion from AGOA might not mean a catastrophe.
“This is not to understate the impact some industries may feel as the increase in tariffs slightly reduces their competitiveness. Still, we must manage the sentiment and narrative around this issue well.”
South Africa had to retain and grow existing markets including the US, the European Union and Africa, while diversifying exports to Asia and the Middle East, Sihlobo said.
