The link between heat-damaged crops and food price inflation was made by the financial newspaper Business Day.
In editorial comment, it said that crop damage due to warm, dry conditions in the main summer grain regions of South Africa could accelerate food price inflation, which has consistently outpaced the headline consumer inflation rate for the past two years.
The current maize crop estimate for this year is 14.4 million tonnes, the lowest since 2019. However if crops have deteriorated faster than expected, the harvest could drop below the 12 million tonnes needed for domestic consumption. Imports would then push up maize prices.
“High maize prices also drive up the price of animal feed, which in turn drives up meat and egg prices.
“Inflation of staple food products such as maize meal has a much larger impact on poorer households, which rely heavily on such products to meet their basic food needs,” Business Day noted.
“Food price inflation has slowed significantly from about 14% in March and April 2023, but the latest reading of 7.2% for January was still higher than headline consumer inflation at 5.3%.
“Poor households spend a third or more of their total income on food. With little wiggle room, high food prices drive them to include more staples such as maize meal in their diet. But when the prices of these staples start to increase at an even faster pace than more expensive options, the last resort is to buy less food — a daunting prospect in a country where about a quarter of the population already suffer from dire food insecurity.”
February 2024 had been identified as the warmest February on record globally.
“As the effect of climate change intensifies, leading to harsher and more frequent droughts for parts of Southern Africa, governments in the region will have to show some urgent and practical responses to the high food prices and food shortages that can result from more frequent crop failures,” Business Day said.
