The climate predictions for the end of this year and into 2027 are getting worse. Scientists are warning of the possibility of extreme heat and low rainfall for southern Africa which would affect crops, national economies and regional food security.
Nothing is certain yet, but each month brings more reports about how bad things could get. The reason for the alarm is the development of a new cycle of the El Niño weather phenomenon. This affects the world’s climate, sometimes moderately, sometime severely. In Southern Africa it brings hotter and drier weather and can cause regional droughts.
The developing El Niño will affect Southern Africa later this year and into 2027. After two years of record maize crops, and a third about to be harvested, plantings are likely to reduce this year as farmers anticipate lower rainfall and possibly drought.
The question is how strong this El Niño will be. In extreme cases, El Niño results in severe drought, such as South Africa experienced in 1982-83, 1991-92 and 2015-16 – South Africa’s driest year on record was in 2015.
The worst El Niño historically, in 1877, killed tens of millions of people in India, the New York Times reported.
The newspaper quoted a research scientist as warning that “A number of the models now show a real chance for a record-setting El Niño event.” Another said there could be “an increase in poverty, malnutrition, conflict, indebtedness, and all of the domino effects that come from that.”
The Daily Maverick warned that the emerging El Niño could be a “super” or “Godzilla” event to rival the colossal one of the late 19th century. This was because El Niño’s impact would be amplified by climate change and already rising temperatures.
The worst may or may not happen, and the coming months will bring more clarity. The Daily Maverick reminds us that the 1997-98 El Niño did not cause the anticipated droughts in South Africa and its neighbouring countries. Rainfall ranged from near normal to above normal.
Nevertheless, it reported that the South African Reserve Bank is factoring El Niño into its inflation scenarios for this year and next.
